The Commission has published a study on 5G market trends and plausible developments of the 5G supply market looking to 2030.

The study considers four possible scenarios, which are driven by factors such as evolving technology, standards readiness, and Radio Access Network (RAN) disaggregation initiatives. Economic, technological, environmental, and societal impacts are analysed for each scenario, covering key European Commission and stakeholder concerns.

The four scenarios are:

1. Incumbent players driving 5G: In this scenario, traditional vendors and Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) are shaping the ecosystem pulled by increasing demand for new services requiring high performance. Equipment from providers considered as ‘high risk vendors’ is used in non-sensitive areas only. Further opening of interfaces stimulates new equipment suppliers, which represents an opportunity for MNOs.
2. Slow pace of 5G Roll-Out: In this scenario, market competition remains the same or even decreases due to the exclusion of vendors because of geopolitical motivations and/or security concerns. Due to the low uptake of business-to-business (B2B) use cases, the overall 5G market size does not expand in Europe and the slow 5G rollout does not provide opportunities for new vendor solutions to be scaled in the short term.
3. Open RAN as a game-changer: In this scenario, Open RAN is a deep game-changer in the 5G supply chain with new players (mainly non-European, even with the possibility of GAFAMs coping this network segment) entering into the European RAN market. In this scenario, decentralized, disaggregated and fully virtualized Open RAN networks may serve Europe. Technological progress is potentially stimulated in the medium and long term, mainly due to increased market competition and new suppliers in the RAN domain.
4. 5G for Big Tech: In this scenario, network virtualisation and disaggregation of software and hardware change the landscape for network equipment, deployment and service provision in the long term. New business models based on Open RAN architectures and interfaces gain momentum, and new major players enter the market. In this scenario, foreign Big Tech companies increase their overall dominance in the European market on demand and supply sides alike.

Read more here.